{
  "_meta": {
    "dataset": "Verdict Resolution Ledger — 脱敏样例",
    "note": "本样例为脱敏演示,预测者以匿名代号呈现;正式 API 提供完整字段与实名映射。",
    "schema_version": "1.0",
    "generated_for": "sample",
    "total_settled_in_production": 4502,
    "engines": ["price", "ashare", "event"]
  },
  "resolutions": [
    {
      "id": "rslv_a1b2c3",
      "predictor": {"ref": "kol_0428", "platform": "xueqiu", "alias": "匿名·加密方向派"},
      "claim": {
        "topic": "BTC",
        "stance": "bullish",
        "statement": "BTC 将在本轮突破前高并站上 12 万美元",
        "target": "120000",
        "stated_at": "2026-05-14T08:20:00Z",
        "deadline": "2026-07-31T00:00:00Z"
      },
      "settlement": {
        "engine": "price",
        "source": "binance_klines",
        "p0": 94210.5,
        "p1": 111830.0,
        "outcome": 0.0,
        "verdict": "miss",
        "prob_prior": 0.72,
        "brier": 0.518,
        "settled_at": "2026-08-01T02:10:00Z"
      },
      "auditable": true
    },
    {
      "id": "rslv_d4e5f6",
      "predictor": {"ref": "kol_1191", "platform": "x", "alias": "匿名·宏观事件派"},
      "claim": {
        "topic": "macro:fed-rates",
        "stance": "bearish",
        "statement": "美联储 9 月不会降息",
        "target": null,
        "stated_at": "2026-06-02T15:00:00Z",
        "deadline": "2026-09-30T00:00:00Z"
      },
      "settlement": {
        "engine": "event",
        "source": "public_fact_llm",
        "outcome": 1.0,
        "verdict": "hit",
        "confidence": 0.88,
        "reason": "至截止日,该月未发生降息(依据广为人知的客观事实)",
        "prob_prior": 0.65,
        "brier": 0.1225,
        "settled_at": "2026-10-01T03:00:00Z"
      },
      "auditable": true
    },
    {
      "id": "rslv_g7h8i9",
      "predictor": {"ref": "kol_0672", "platform": "xueqiu", "alias": "匿名·A股价值派"},
      "claim": {
        "topic": "ashare:600519",
        "stance": "bullish",
        "statement": "当前位置买入长期持有不会亏",
        "target": null,
        "stated_at": "2026-04-10T01:30:00Z",
        "deadline": "2026-07-10T00:00:00Z"
      },
      "settlement": {
        "engine": "ashare",
        "source": "close_price",
        "p0": 1548.0,
        "p1": 1632.5,
        "outcome": 1.0,
        "verdict": "hit",
        "prob_prior": 0.60,
        "brier": 0.16,
        "settled_at": "2026-07-11T09:00:00Z"
      },
      "auditable": true
    }
  ],
  "predictor_scorecard_sample": {
    "ref": "kol_0428",
    "platform": "xueqiu",
    "alias": "匿名·加密方向派",
    "settled": 47,
    "hit_rate": 0.404,
    "brier": 0.271,
    "calibration_gap": 0.11,
    "edge_vs_always_bull": -0.03,
    "note": "edge 为对比『永远看涨』基线的超额;负值=不如无脑看涨。"
  }
}